Anybody who’s been around an online NBA draft circle in the past couple years has heard the name Victor Wembanyama. A giant, teenage Frenchman who can apparently do just about everything there is to do on a basketball court.
The hype surrounding Victor Wembanyama has been unrelenting, and it’s easy to see why. He absolutely should be the first overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft, and there’s plenty of reasons. A quick look at his measurements will give you a glimpse into that.
While listed at “only” 7-foot-2, most will argue Victor stands a full two-to-three inches above that, and it’s hard to argue against that seeing how he makes other seven-footers seem small in comparison. Pair this height with a 7-foot-9 wingspan makes his upside all the more tantalizing. A rough estimate would put Wembanyama’s standing reach at around 9-foot-7, meaning he would only need to get around eight to ten inches off the ground to put the ball directly in the rim, or swat it into another stratosphere.
The ladder of those possibilities, in my opinion, is the staple of Victor Wembanyama as a historical NBA prospect. His length alone gives him a floor like no other on that end, but his fluidity is what takes his ceiling to the next level.
Playing mostly at the four for ASVEL last season, Victor spent his fair share of possessions guarding the perimeter. He was forced to slide his feet with much smaller and quicker players, close out on jumpshots, and rotate into help defense. And, if the film is to be believed, he did extremely well.
I want to take a quick step away and talk about the position that Victor Wembanyama projects best at in the NBA. At well over seven-feet, it’s hard to imagine him anywhere other than the five, defending the likes of Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic in the post on a night to night basis, but that doesn’t seem to be the direction the NBA is headed.
Players like Jaren Jackson Jr, Evan Mobley, and most recently, Chet Holmgren all made a name for themselves as prospects with their elite defensive abilities at or around seven-feet tall. They came into the league projected as centers, but in the cases of Jackson and Mobley (and likely Holmgren) they’ve played the power forward position all their career.
The power forward position has been one of the most flimsily defined positions in the NBA, especially with the small ball revolution experienced in the mid-to-late 2010s. The league moved away from the traditional secondary big man with a little more versatility on offense towards wing sized players who spaced the floor and provided extra perimeter defense.
Now, arguably, this all started to change when Giannis Antetokounmpo started to ascend to superstardom. Not only did him as a physical specimen force teams to add more size to their roster, but the Bucks style of defense; focusing on wiping away easy looks at the rim over open threes; would become the prototype for what is now looking to be a trend of lineups featuring two big men, working to its greatest effect with the Celtics this past season, who went to the Finals with a defensive backline of Al Horford and Robert Williams III in their front court.
But what does this mean for Victor Wembanyama? One of the first things that comes to mind when you watch Victor is, of course, how lanky he is. In my opinion, I think he has a good enough frame to add muscle, but it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be the go-to option to defend these superstar centers, which is a totally fair criticism. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a role for Wembanyama at the next level on that defensive end, and I think that it perfectly fits the aforementioned prototype for the modern power forward.
His versatility on the defensive end, as well as on the offensive end (which we’ll delve into later) makes him potentially the best example of this prototype to date. He can cover ground, wipe away shots in help defense, and occasionally switch onto the perimeter when needed just like the Jackson’s, Mobley’s, and Holmgren’s of the world, but what separates Victor is the fact that he’s taller, longer, and more fluid than all three of them.
There’s surefire Defensive Player of the Year upside with Victor Wembanyama, and it all stems from that insane length. He still has to smooth out the edges; adding weight, improving his footwork, and learning how to impact the shots he’s not able to reach better; but the foundation is better than any prospect in recent memory.
One of my biggest criticisms with Wembanyama on defense is unsurprisingly something very minor, but if unchecked could limit his production as a shot-blocker and overall impact defensively. A lot of Victor’s blocks are simply a product of his length, and quick jumps off of the floor. He has solid timing, but oftentimes, takes an angle towards the shot that isn’t ideal. When a player gets the ball between him and the basket, he can be slow to react, and will usually chase the ball down where the player is, rather than where they will be, making a quick reverse layup off of a good basket cut, a consistent way of nullifying Wembanyama’s length, although his presence is regularly enough. It’s a simple fix, but an issue regardless.
Potentially the most exciting part about Wembanyama, however, is his offense. At 7-foot-whatever, he moves like a wing off of screens, can attack off the dribble, and with his incredible length, has some crazy finishes over and around defenders at the cup. He’s far less refined on this end, but the idea of what he could be is enough to have scouts, such as myself, licking their chops.
Let’s start with the shooting, Victor’s shot is a two-motion release with minimal lift off the ground (à la Kristaps Porzingis), but he shoots it with confidence and quickness. The sample size is limited, however, due to his offensive role, so it’s hard to tell if there’s anything real to suggest that he’s going to be a good shooter out of the gates, but the potential is clear.
Wembanyama was even utilized at times as a movement shooter for ASVEL, running off screens, and drilling the looks he got at a respectable clip. He came off screens 19 times this past season, and poured in 16 points, scoring 11 on just 6 possessions when he was healthy. That’s unreal – and I’m about to start sounding like a broken record – for a player his size.
The main concern about Victor’s shooting is that he doesn’t have the indicators of a great shooter on the stat sheet. He’s posted subpar numbers from three (40 of 129 in 52 games) and from the line (37 of 54 in 52 games) throughout his professional career, but the flashes have just been so enticing that we’ve chosen to ignore that for the most part. But should we?
A good portion of Wembanyama’s draw on offense is the prospect of his shot, so what if he continues to just be subpar. On film, the form looks nice, and you can point to minor injuries being a stem of the inconsistency, or his lack of a true offensive role inhibiting him from showing his true talent as a shooter. All are valid reasons, and I think we’ll get to see him play much more freely with Metropolitans 92. However, I don’t think it’s fair to just throw all caution to the wind and just assume the shooting will just work out because of the ‘generational’ tag he’s been given by media, fans, and scouts alike.
But doubt isn’t fun, so let’s get to something that is more certain. Victor is a sight to see around the basket. His light feet and long frame make dunking second nature for him, and with just a little extra bounce, there’s little anybody can do to stop him from scoring under the basket. There are highlights a-plenty of Wembanyama simply going up and over a defender, wrapping two hands around the rim. He’s got good touch from floater range too, and with his length – told you I’d sound like a broken record – he’s impossible to contest in the paint.
As a lob threat, he doesn’t have the verticality of some of the elite rim running bigs, but his unfathomable catch radius is enough to allow him to convert basically any pass thrown to him above the rim. If the jump shot becomes a real threat, it’s going to be fun seeing him slip some off-ball screens for an easy catch and finish at the basket.
A main facet of Victor’s offensive production has been his ability to turn defense into offense. He’ll swat a shot at the rim, or even a jump shot on the perimeter, and get out in running, using his long, fluid strides to beat defenders down the court for a nearly automatic two points on the other end. This ability to not only create transition, but to capitalize it is going to help Victor create a positive impact on both ends of the court from day one.
Now, Victor’s post-game is something that leaves a little bit more to be desired. He’s got a solid drop-step, and good touch on his fade-away, but that’s really it right now. He’s not currently built to back anybody down, and doesn’t have the means necessary to punish mismatches if a simple turn-around over the top of them isn’t falling. Adding muscle should be enough to fix this issue, and in the meantime, I doubt it’s even going to be a part of his role in his team’s offense, unless he’s matched up against someone considerably smaller.
The most overlooked part of Victor’s offensive game is what he can do when he’s not shooting. We’ve already discussed the way in which he moves out on the perimeter, and to say it’s wing-like is not an over exaggeration. This is especially evident with the ball in his hands. Victor’s handle isn’t elite – you’d be crazy to expect it to be – but at his size, the wiggle he has on the perimeter is something special. Oftentimes, he lacks the burst to get fully past a defender, but a lot of the time, a little separation is all he’s going to need to be able to shoot over just about any defender you put on him.
However, Victor’s vision might be the most underrated aspect of his game. He’s not a Jokic or a Draymond Green in the sense that he’s going to be a hub of an offense simply with his ability to manipulate defenses, and maximize the players around him, however, there are some untapped gifts in this aspect of the game. He’s creative with his deliveries, throwing lobs in transitions, or one-handed touch passes as soon as the ball touches his hands. He can find cutters out of the high post, and will occasionally even hit a dump-off pass in a short pick ‘n’ roll.
There’s less to this part of his game than even the shooting, but it’s exciting nonetheless, and makes me all the more excited about his prospects as an offensive player.
I want to ask a question though, that I haven’t seen get asked a ton surrounding Victor Wembanyama, as such a unique NBA prospect: Why haven’t we seen anything like him in the past? Is it simply because it’s rare to see a player of his size, much less with his gifts? Probably, but there also just hasn’t been much historical precedent for a player his size to succeed in the NBA.
In NBA history, there have only been 26 players 7-foot-3 or taller. Only 11 of which have played over 300 total games in the NBA, with the only All-Stars of that bunch being Yao Ming (7-foot-6), Ralph Sampson (7-foot-4), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (7-foot-3), Arvydas Sabonis (7-foot-3), and Kristaps Porzingis. Almost all of which had significant injuries throughout their career.
I briefly alluded to Victor Wembanyama’s injury history earlier, and while none have been significant enough to cause major concern, the number of injuries can draw eyes if you’re not entirely focused on the sheer level of talent he plays with. He played in less than half of ASVEL’s games last season, and was sidelined during the playoffs due to an undisclosed muscle injury. It’s been tough to keep Victor Wembanyama on the court throughout his young career.
Additionally, a scary sight for scouts is the inward knee bend Victor has when he jumps, whether he’s shooting it from outside, loading up for a block, or leaping for a lob. This inward knee bend has been proven to be related to lower body injuries, and while the majority of Victor’s injury history has pertained to upper-body injuries, it’s hard to not to notice how often his knees are nearly knocking together when you watch his film.
It’s unknown how quickly these issues will fix themselves, whether or not his injuries were a fluke, or if they’ll simply be fixed as he grows into his body, but right now, it’s just hard to bet against his level of talent, especially considering we’re going to get to watch him play overseas for another full year before he takes his talent to the NBA.
Despite these questions, Victor is the surefire number one pick in the 2023 NBA draft as it stands, and whether or not injuries impact his upcoming season with Metropolitans 92, there’s minimal doubt in my mind that that projection will see much change. This year’s class is arguably one of the best in recent history with its combination of playmakers, athletes, and defensive game wreckers, but at the headline of every article, video, or other form of media discussing it will be Victor Wembanyama.
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