Detailing what Presti typically looks for in his prospects, the team needs, 10 players who could or should fit the bill this year, trade up scenarios, big boards, and more.
The Oklahoma City Thunder came out of the 2022-23 season as massive winners and are heading into 2024 with one of the brightest futures in the NBA. With the youngest roster in league history post-trade deadline and their superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still under 25, he and the Thunder as a whole surpassed any and all expectations with the team lasting one win from the playoffs while boasting individual accomplishments like Shai’s All-NBA 1st team, top 5 MVP nods and Jalen Williams’ All-Rookie 1st team, 2nd in ROY nods.
For two years in a row, the organization has posted defensive success beyond its roster’s youthful age would project. But this season, their offense caught up. Since the new years calendar turned until the end of the regular season, OKC tied for 11th best offense and made a serious postseason contention run – even without their 2nd overall pick Chet Holmgren adding his much needed two-way spacing and rim protection.
Now they turn to Presti’s calling card: trades and the NBA draft. The former already occurring, with him moving the 37th overall pick along with other draft capital for Denver’s 2029 first, and the latter happening in (enter days from or since the 2023 NBA draft, at the time of your reading). But to hypothesize whom he might select on draft night, we first need to outline what he typically looks for in his prospects along with the current team needs.
Presti-Bait:
Positional size
Movement skills
Ball skills (handle, comfort in space, transition ballhandling across all positions)
Passing/decision-making
Defensive versatility (i.e. length)
Feel for the game
Team Needs:
Perimeter shooting
Complimentary shotmaking
Frontcourt talent
With the needed context laid out, here are eight prospects I think Presti would, or at least should, take a look at with the 12th pick.
Guards
Keyonte George:
Keyonte is a rather interesting target for OKC at 12. As a 6’4/201 lbs perimeter shotmaker who leans SG, he lacks the length and one of or both defensive versatility/high feel Presti typically looks for in the lottery — Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ousmane Dieng. But the ball skills, quick decision-making, and overall lack of his archetype on the roster (Tre Mann being the exception) might mean he’s just what Oklahoma City needs in this draft.
Keyonte is a rather interesting target for OKC at 12. Over the past few drafts, Presti has preferred drafting prospects with positional size, ball skills, passing, and defensive versatility — often willing to sacrifice shooting in the process. As a 6’4/201 lbs perimeter shotmaker who leans SG, Keyonte is the opposite of that archetype. However, a lack of his archetype on the roster (Tre Mann being the exception) might mean he’s just what they need in this draft.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best scorers in the NBA. He did after all just average 31 points on 62% TS for an entire season. He’s one of the best drivers in the league and equally as deadly in the midrange area. What he isn’t, though, is a volume 3-point shooter. He made less than a whole three per game (0.9) last season, and two-thirds (0.6) of them were pull ups.
Neither of Giddey, Jalen Williams, or Dort are three-point self creators either, and Lindy and Joe are movement shooters at best. This creates an opening for George in a perimeter shotmaking specialist role.
While 33.8% from three may not pop out, the volume (14.3 att./100) and level of shot difficulty (82.7% of 3PT att. were pull-ups or guarded C&S) add context to the raw percentage. Add in how Keyonte had the reigns to let it fly from anywhere on the court, and you start to see how he’s a better shooter than what initially meets the eye.
| <25 ft. | 25+ ft. |
Guarded C&S | 16/50 (32.0%) | 5/26 (19.2%) |
Unguarded C&S | 13/26 (50.0%) | 2/8 (25.0%) |
All 3s | 56/143 (39.2%) | 20/82 (24.4%) |
| | |
Positioning him closer to the three-point line (shoutout to Swish Theory’s Big Board) and getting him more open catch-and-shoot looks next to Shai, Giddey, JDub, and even Chet should see his percentages rise in the league.
How you maximize his skillset from there is what’s interesting. I’m a buyer in his movement shooting long-term with his footwork, shot prep, and touch all screaming elite. NBA-best shooting guru and Thunder assistant coach Chip Engelland would help maximizing George’s shooting potential too.
That shot versatility with his lightning quick processing skills off the catch — he’s one of the best connective passers in the class — mean he would function well in OKC’s multi-ballhandler lineups. He can play in spot up and attack closeouts, both maintaining and converting advantages created by Shai, Giddey, and Jalen; and can also be used in actions like 21/Chicago and Spain PnR where his shooting and handling skills would be utilized without stagnating the offense.
Keyonte’s off-ball game is great, but it’s his creation upside with ball that makes his slot in OKC interesting. Although they have multiple creators as I’ve noted several times, none of them fit the shotmaker mold that Keyonte is. He doesn’t create much separation off-the-dribble, but his organization and touch make up for any degree of contest on his pull-up jumpers. That, combined with impressive passing, make for a PnR creator that can lead the Thunder’s bench units — and a much needed perimeter self-creator that would help in OKC’s inevitable future deep postseason runs.
This ability to impact offense playing both on and off the ball is a trademark of Presti and co.’s drafting: Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ousmane Dieng. And with the Thunder’s lack of elite perimeter shooters and shotmaking outside of Shai, Keyonte George could very well be the pick at 12.
Cason Wallace:
One of the safest bets for starter impact in this class, Cason fits into essentially any team and OKC is no different. While undersized for a connector role at 6’4, his touch and quick processing make up for size. He projects well as a floor spacer (see Barttorvik query below for drafted one-and-dones with 34% 3PT, 7.0 3PA/100, and 100 far 2s attempted) and drawing closeouts.
Attacking these closeouts, he’s comfortable driving and finishing with touch (60.0% at the rim in halfcourt), floating it over a contest (34.8% on 84th percentile volume), or pulling up for a midrange jumper (44.8% on 58 attempts) if a driving lane is cut off. He’s also a quick processor with good passing ability, boding well as a connective passer for maintaining advantages (add 20% AST to the previous Bart query and the list is even more impressive, Cason’s was at 24.4%).
All this sets up a very high offensive floor as a tablesetter and connector, although he might not have much upside as an advantage creator, he’s primed to be an elite advantage maintainer and converter. Still he’s a very good PnR passer with an elite midrange pullup, meaning he can run the Thunder’s bench units and add some second-side creation with other ballhandlers.
And of course Cason’s calling card – his defense. One of the best guard defender prospects of the past decade, Wallace combines conceptual understanding, technique, feel, and event creation. He’s an incredibly quick 6’4 guard that plays above his height and stronger than his 195 lbs, allowing him to move up and down guarding positions and offensive archetypes. He’s an elite screen navigator who moves his feet well to beat ballhandlers to their spots and poke balls away with elite hands, equating to a 3.7% STL. He’s just as sound off the ball, helping, tagging, and covering the right rotations at the right time while also using his 6’9 wingspan to get in passing lanes and even some real help-side blocks as a guard (1.6 BLK%). He was immensely productive defensively (3.8 D-PRPG), and the only other sub-6’6 player in Barttorvik’s 15 year database with similar productivity and event creation is two-time All-Defensive Team Mattise Thybulle.
The defense means he can replace Dort seamlessly as a screen navigator and perimeter lockdown if we were to move on from him, while also providing malleable offense next to him and multiple ballhandlers if Presti doesn’t explore those trade options. This versatile, two-way impact is the base of Wallace’s appeal and what makes him such a great target at 12 even if he may not necessarily have star upside – that’s not what the Thunder need right now.
Wings/Fowards
Brice Sensabaugh:
If Keyonte was leaning away from the traditional Presti prospect, Brice does so even more. He fills needs similar to Keyonte for OKC, but in his own unique ways with different inflection points.
The Thunder need the aforementioned shooting and shotmaking and Brice provides both at an elite level too. He might be even deadlier off the catch than Keyonte, shooting 40.5% on 11.1 threes per 100 possessions with 88.3% assisted. Next to OKC’s plethora of ballhandlers, Brice would get a ton of these easy catch-and-shoot looks to convert into points – where he shot 44.8% on 3s. With this deadeye shooting, he’ll earn closeouts pretty early on into his rookie season and space the floor well for Shai, Giddey, Jalen, Dort, etc.
How he attacks these closeouts is a little more complex. He’s great at using a pump fake to extend the initial advantage, but sometimes took a little step to the side before his straight-line drive that allowed his man to recover, when paired with his lackluster burst, can dispel an advantage. However this was very rarely the case, and he more often than not took the proper angle attacking off the catch.
There were some really beautiful moments when he did so — an open 1-2 dribble pull-up essentially the equivalent of a layup for Brice and even some enticing rim attacks. This was moreso when he had clear open lanes to attack, though, and he faced some problems when he didn’t.
For one, he often telegraphed his attacks off the catch when his defender wasn’t completely behind him on the play. For example — a pump fake + stutter rip opened up his defender’s hips on one play, but instead of attacking the opposite hip and driving right, he telegraphed and drove left the way the defender was turned and made it easy for him to cut off Brice’s drive. At the same time, it didn’t really matter as he just spun left after the cut off and rose up for a jumper that he buried.
Another issue Sensabaugh faced on non-open lane attacks was generating sufficient rim pressure. When attacking advantages off the catch, he would often decelerate short of the paint and struggle to use his 6’6/235 lbs frame and take the extra step. This deceleration allowed his man or a rotating defender to catch up on the play, cut off a lane to the rim, and contest Brice’s midrange jumper/floater. All this led to just 11.1% of his spot-up 2PA (a rough indicator of closeout attacks via Synergy) coming at the rim but again… does it matter? While he can more easily access advantage conversion venues if he learns to use his frame, for someone who’s buried one tough jumper after another with incredible efficiency, the line between layup and jumpshot becomes increasingly blurred. Overall, I’d say Brice does a good job at attacking off the catch and finding his shot.
With his combination of shooting and closeout attacking excellence, I’d say he’s a better spot-up player than Keyonte but not as dynamic off the ball. Just 11.4% of Brice’s threes came off screens/DHOs (compared to 17.3% of Keyonte’s), which limits the ways you can creatively integrate him into multiple ballhandler lineups. He also still struggled with decision-making towards the end of the season with Ohio State, meaning he lacks viability as a connective passer and maintaining advantages off closeout attacks.
But for what he lacks as a passer, he’s simply one of the best scorers in this draft. He averaged a video-game like 30.2 PTS/75 on 58.7% TS, some of the highest scoring numbers ever for a freshman. A 6’6, 235 lbs wing built like an NFL tight end simply should not have the grace, footwork, and touch that Brice has — and it allows him to be one of the best midrange scoring prospects we’ve ever seen.
He creates windows with his size and footwork and shoots over defenders even if he doesn’t have one. His touch compensates for it, he has some of the best in the class which says a lot considering this year boasts the likes of Gradey Dick, Brandon Miller, Jett Howard, Jordan Hawkins, Nick Smith Jr., and Keyonte George among others.
That combination of strength, footwork, and elite touch lead to a ridiculous 49.4% on 160 non-rim 2s for Ohio State this past season, per Synergy. The volume and efficiency is staggering, and when paired with his incredibly high unassisted rates, makes his shooting profile historically unprecedented. Though he shot just 25.8% (8/31) on off-the-dribble threes, I would bet on him extending his midrange pull-up proficiency beyond the arc. He shot 44.4% (52/117) on catch-and-shoot threes, and someone with his touch and midrange craft not eventually figuring out the perimeter self-creation would shock me.
OKC needs another tough shotmaker next to SGA — it’s hard to just succeed with just the one during championship runs — and relying solely on Jalen Williams eventually developing into that for them could be risky. So while Brice may be less versatile offensively and even moreso limited defensively compared to Keyonte, maybe only Victor Wembanyama can get buckets as easy as him in this draft. Banking on him and Mark Daigneault figuring the rest out, drafting Brice as a pure scorer off the bench could propel Oklahoma City to the next level as an offense.
With that being said, I still think it’s unlikely Presti seriously considers drafting Brice. He’s spent the last few years building an elite roster of D/P/S guys who can create, maintain, and convert advantages, and I’m not sure how Brice fits into that outside of spot-up play and bench creation. He also has a long uphill battle to reach neutral defensive status at the next level — he lacks foot speed, screen navigation, and much event creation on the perimeter and probably hurts you more off the ball. Tre Mann is probably the closest defensive negative Presti has drafted during this rebuild, and even he was much better off than Sensabaugh is at this point. While Brice is a supremely talented prospect whom I firmly have in lottery range, I just don’t see the fit in OKC.
Gradey Dick:
When I initially started this piece, I considered placing Dick in the trade-up targets section as I didn’t see him falling past Dallas at 10 or Orlando at 11. However, Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo of ESPN recently reported that his “draft range appears to be a little wider than initially anticipated, as he'll be conducting workouts with Orlando for [11th] slot, as well as Oklahoma City (No. 12) and Toronto (No. 13).” This means he could outright be available at 12, which could be a huge value pick.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way; as arguably the best shooter in the draft, Gradey would provide some much needed perimeter shooting and shotmaking to this OKC roster. Standing around 6’8 with a ~6’9 wingspan, Gradey has a smooth, repeatable shooting stroke and a high release point that has proven to fall down at an elite rate through both high school and college. I have no issue projecting it to fall at the same clip as he stretches back to the NBA 3-point line. He demands hard closeouts off the catch and has some real movement shooting potential, but even more impressive to me is how much he can put the ball on the floor.
He’s well adept at pump faking – sidestepping for a three (53.5% on 43 pull up threes) or dribbling into a 1-2 pullup middy (42.4% on 59 midrange attempts) – or driving a closeout and taking it all the way to the rim (58.7% on 46 halfcourt rim attempts). He uses this three-level spot up scoring, if you will, to make the right read on swing-swing passes, attacking closeout/kickout passes, etc where his quick processing shines. He has an incredibly functional handle and passing arsenal for a potentially nuclear shooter at the next level, along with very good timely cutting, showcase his high feel as well.
Dick’s ancillary D/P/S skillset is an obvious fit with the Thunder. He spaces the floor well for their primary creators, can both maintain and convert advantages that are created, be utilized in his own off-ball sets drawn up for him, and turn nothing into something offense with perimeter relocation or cuts. Furthermore, I think some handling flashes, secondary PnR passing, and his feel suggest untapped creation upside with the ball in his hands.
The seamless offensive fit along with Gradey’s valuable length and motor that’s brought value on the defensive end when locked into scheme makes it a great fit in Oklahoma City. I have Gradey locked into my top 8, and I’d be enthralled if we were to nab him via either trade up or at 12, as I have no doubt in Coach Daigneault maximizing his strengths and shielding his weaknesses.
Jett Howard:
Although some might see Jett in the lottery as a reach (I don’t think so) and there’s no shot OKC drafts him (that’s probably true), I still want to detail his fit here with it being a good one and him also being one of my favorite prospects in this class.
As I detailed in my Jett article, his offense translates pretty seamlessly to the NBA. As a second-side creator and potentially nuclear shooter on pull-ups, catch-and-shoots, and movement shooting, he can create both as a scorer and passer coming off screens, handoffs, and attacking closeouts in a way that fits very well in the Thunder’s multi-ballhandler lineups. He also has creation upside off the bounce, where’s he’s strung together elite dribble moves with great handle and proprioception at 6’8 despite limited burst.
The combination of off-ball aptitude and on-ball creation means Howard fits the bill of a Thunder prospect on offense, but the defense is definitely a major turn-off for Presti. He’s a pretty weak lateral mover on the perimeter, doesn’t use his size or strength, and – while the proprioception, movement skills, and slipperiness Jett possesses helps him as a screen navigator – he’s not the best at preparing for screens, meaning he’s a pretty poor PoA defender overall. And off the ball, he’s not currently able to use length to create plays either meaning limited impact there. I do think Jett has the tools and flashes for optimism on this end, combined with me being high on his offense, has landed me on a top-10 grade for him; I just don’t think Presti sees the same as me nor thinks his offensive ability would make up for the risk on defense with the structure they’re going for there.
Leonard Miller:
Leonard Miller is the 6’10 of funkiness Presti lives for. Length, movement skills, ball skills, touch, passing, feel, and a broken shot. All the ingredients of a Thunder pick.
I have little doubt Miller will have a long and productive NBA career. At just 19 years old, he averaged 18.0 PTS, 11.0 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.9 STL, and 0.8 BLK on 64.5% TS… in the G-League! He’s been productive at every level of basketball he’s played with role versatility, and has too good an intersection of movement skills, ballhandling, touch, and feel to not find success at the next level. It’s just the role in which he’ll find success in and to what level he’ll achieve success that I’m not so sure about. But I do have some ideas.
Within the Thunder, I think he would best be utilized as a playfinisher early on in his career. He’d probably have to bulk up a little more to best effectively set screens but his length, physicality, and touch would really shine on rim runs in both halfcourt and transition. The physicality is especially encouraging when barreling into the paint for finishes (66.2% at the rim) and boards (19.8% REB). The passing in his prep school tape could also be given the chance to shine on short rolls, throwing lobs to Chet or finding Isaiah and Lindy on the perimeter.
From there, he has an endless avenues for further success. With his fluidity and feel, he could find success as a connector who can attack closeouts if he fixes the shot, a 6’10 jumbo creator that he was in prep school, and anything in between. And the Thunder would love working with that broad of a developmental skillset.
Though I do think his combination of tools and event creation mean he’ll be able to at least stick around defensively in the league, I don’t think his defensive shortcomings are the best fit in OKC. In a rather complex scheme that involves lots of rotating, switching, and communicating, Leonard’s lack of awareness on that end and somewhat slow feet on the perimeter would limit his impact within scheme. It’s not impossible and he has a high motor, but it’d take lots of growth for him to become a positive impact on that end with the Thunder. And that’s something Presti, Daigneault and company value a lot. Still, the ‘Presti-bait’ and workable tools Miller presents could be too enticing for him to pass up at 12.
Bilal Coulibaly:
The biggest draft riser over the past month who’s reportedly been promised in the lottery, Bilal Coulibaly is a super-toolsy young wing with loads of intrigue.
The bulk of that intrigue starts on the defensive end where Coulibaly has the chance to become not only one of the best wing defenders from this class, but one of the better wing defenders in the league at his peak, in my opinion. 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan, he’s super agile with quick feet and fluid hips that allow him to change speeds and directions and make him a supreme lateral mover. Those hips also enable him to slither around screens like a pro, though having Wembanyama on ballscreens helps, it popped when chasing guys off the ball too. These movement skills paired with the length he possesses means he’ll be able to stay with the best ballhandlers in the world and give them issues. His main issue as of right now is strength as at 195 lbs, he definitely needs some strength development to avoid getting moved and power through tougher screens (although this should be relatively low hanging fruit).
He’s just as active off the ball, along with the screen navigation that helps him chase shooters around the court, his length and awareness often leads to blowing up actions and covering ground. The ground coverage and tools show itself on blocks, where he’s shown real upside as a low-man/help-side complimentary shot blocker. A wing who can both navigate screens and block shots is rare to find, let alone the fact that Bilal did this in one of the most talented playing fields in all of draft scouting. The perimeter, on and off-ball defense Coulibaly provides once again could serve as a Dort replacement as I talked about in the Cason section.
Where role and potential impact gets a little more hazy is with Bilal’s offense. Starting with the strong, he’s a talented driver and an instinctual cutter with incredible finishing when he’s at the rim. His length, athleticism, and ambidextrous touch translate to efficient offense at the rim — where he shot a ridiculous 68.1% on 94 attempts as an 18-year-old in LNB Pro A. Being so effective with the most efficient shot in basketball and being able to convert on both assisted and unassisted attempts is definitely noteworthy in projections. How he can consistently get there on non-cuts is what I struggle with.
The shooting eval on Bilal is tricky. He’s shown substantial shooting improvement from a year or two ago — 20.9% 3PT on 86 att. in 2021-22 U21 vs. 33.6% 3PT on 119 att. in 2022-23 across all leagues — but the sample is still pretty small overall. He shot 14/31 (45.2%) for the Metropolitans Pro A team in the regular season, a number that dropped down to 5/21 (23.8%) in the playoffs. He’s also only a career 69.6% (179/257) FT shooter in professional events, so the touch is mediocre. That makes it difficult to project him as a league-average shooter but still… he went from 23.9% on 67 spot-up threes in 2022 U21 to 39.4% on 99 spot-up threes. He’s probably not a 40% catch-and-shoot guy right now, but such a large improvement on increased volume in just a year gap has got to mean something for someone who’s 18 on draft night.
I’d say he’s about a ~30% 3PT guy on limited volume right now, which isn’t enough to draw closeouts. How much you project the shot to improve probably dictates where you have him on your board. If he can draw closeouts, it opens a lot for him as a closeout attacker where his movement skills and finishing prowess would shine, and as a connective passer where his PnR passing would assist him. If he doesn’t, he’d probably have to reach his 80th+ percentile self-creation outcomes to provide meaningful offensive impact, which is difficult without a reliable pull-up jumper anywhere on the court.
As for me, I think Bilal’s defense should keep him on an NBA floor and his offensive improvements, flashes, tools, and young age is worth betting on in the late lottery to mid first round. The fit within OKC itself is solid. He meets the positional size, movement skills, handle, decision-making, and defensive versatility requirements for a Thunder wing. He’d work well off their creators with his cuts, and fit right in with his defense. Working with Chip Engelland should also help him inch closer to league-average shooter, and maybe even beyond as a pull-up shooter that can unlock more self-creation outcomes. I don’t think Coulibaly is the best pick at 12 considering the Thunder’s trajectory from last season and the other guys that’ll likely still be on the board, but he certainly wouldn’t be the worst pick as a young, lengthy wing who can impact winning right now and still has tons of upside.
Trade Up Targets
Jarace Walker:
From a pure fit standpoint, Jarace Walker is behind no one for the Oklahoma City Thunder. He screams Presti all over with his length, movement skills, passing, and defensive versatility all fitting the drafting model. On offense, OKC wants ball skills and processing at all 5 positions (why OKC won’t ever draft a traditional big like Jalen Duren in 2022 or Derrick Lively in 2023) to best create and maintain advantages. On defense, their length and versatility shines in their scheme that circles around over-rotating to limit penetration and recovering to perimeter shooters.
In these ideologies, Walker fits like a glove and would slide right into the 4 next to Chet.
Where Chet isn’t the best at creating micro-advantages with his screening, Jarace is. He has a broad offensive skillset and an array of end outcomes with his ball skills, but a simplified role as a connecting playfinisher is where he’d shine in his first couple seasons. Shai and Giddey have already blossomed into masterful PnR creators without any elite roller throughout their careers, and the presence of one in Walker could propel them to even greater heights. Jarace himself would benefit next to those two as well, as he’d get by far the easiest looks of his career with NBA spacing and teams zoning in on OKC’s ballhandlers.
Around 6’8 in shoes and 248.6 lbs, his bulky frame is built for screen-setting while his 7’2.5 wingspan and 38” max vertical make for explosive playfinishing. He didn’t get a chance to show it off much as a roll man with Houston — only 7% of the time per Synergy — but the tools showed itself as a cutter, in the dunker spot, and in transition throughout the season. He excelled when he did roll too: 1.75 PPP on 4 roll possessions and 1.08 PPP on 12 slip possessions. Jarace would find lots of success in the 2-man game with SGA and especially Giddey, who’s one of the most talented passers for a 20-year-old the league has seen.
While the lob threat on rim runs is impressive, it’s Walker’s passing on short rolls that makes him a prototypical OKC Thunder draft target. He’s one of the best processors and a uniquely creatively passer in this draft class and would fit right into OKC’s all 5-ballhandlers/processors lineup. He can find cutters and perimeter shooters alike, making him extremely valuable when OKC’s primary ballhandlers are faced with aggressive coverages. Having not one but two bigs — Jarace Walker and Chet Holmgren — who can not only roll and finish plays but also roll and pass would be invaluable in the modern-day game.
Jarace can also use this passing to maintain advantages via closeout attacks; as long as he’s able to draw them, which I think he will eventually. While Jarace’s touch and shooting upside is the main differentiator and swing skills on his evals, I fall on the more optimistic end and is why I comfortably have him ranked top-eight.
The FT numbers aren’t the greatest — 66.3% on 80 attempts. But his touch on floaters is better than the numbers say with his comfortability getting them off out of essentially any playtype or situation: self-creation, attacking closeouts, playfinishing, etc. His impressive floater versatility is why he’s still outperforming Synergy’s Shot Quality metric despite the mediocre shooting percentage.
And if you’re a defense having to closeout on Jarace’s shot, good luck stopping him and OKC now. Having two inside-out connective playfinishing bigs next to Shai, Giddey, and Jalen creating advantages is unstoppable offense.
And if the offensive fit was great, the defensive one is even greater.
Presti prefers not drafting a traditional big to pair with Chet not just because of the five-ball skills + processing idea, but also because he plans for Chet to be OKC’s full-time center. Holmgren’s PnR coverage versatility is arguably just as valuable as his rim protection, especially come playoff time. He can run every scheme imaginable: high drop, deep drop, blitz, hedge and recover, and even switch to some extent. This PnR defense is best utilized at the five — or on the opposing team’s five — where ballscreens are usually set.
While Chet is busy guarding pick-and-rolls and acting as the primary line of rim protection, this is the perfect place for Jarace to thrive as a havoc-wrecker. This is where he’s best as a defender, roaming around freely and blowing up actions, getting in passing lanes, covering rotations as the low man, and acting as the second line of rim protection when Chet gets beat. It’s hard to overstate just how effective Walker is on defense, using his tools in tandem with an unreal motor and intensity to clean up his teammates’ mistakes. In a Mark Daignault scheme involving aggressive overhelping to limit paint touches and quickly recovering to perimeter shooters, Jarace’s mind-boggling ground coverage would fit right in. And in a scheme involving emergency switches (read-and-react unplanned switches, not planned switches), peel switches, and shrinking the floor, Jarace’s length and defensive versatility would also fit in.
He’s capable of switching and playing in multiple aggressive ballscreen coverages, meaning teams can’t just avoid screening Chet’s man and then get away with PnR success on the other big either (problems this year’s LA squad with Anthony Davis had to adjust heavily for). His versatility is just remarkable, and is what the Thunder are all about.
OKC has no singular set scheme, it’s a blend of techniques and a blend that changes based on the opponent, which is where the abundance of length and defensive versatility helps. This is how they were able to engineer a top defense throughout most of the year despite being one of the youngest teams in league history and lacking a true big man. Adding Chet to that defense would make it even better. And adding another schematically versatile big in Jarace Walker would take it to historical levels.
While you could argue there are better prospects than him if OKC were to trade up — one of the Thompson twins or even Taylor Hendricks — none elevate the team’s ceiling as much was Walker. He is the embodiment of Oklahoma City basketball, both on offense and defense, and is also a highly coveted prospect in one of the deepest drafts in recent history. Such a talent is the perfect piece for Presti to draft if he were to trade up, which is why I think he should do everything in his power to do so and draft Jarace.
Taylor Hendricks:
While Taylor Hendricks isn’t necessarily as seamless a fit as Walker is within OKC’s construct, it’s still a very good one nonetheless. He’d play the same role on defense as a roaming four next to Chet, and although he’s not as precise with his rotations as the low man, he excels more as a rim protector with superior timing, ball tracking skills, and functional explosives on blocks compared to Jarace. He can overhelp and lose his man off-ball sometimes, but I believe the learning curve to improvement there would be easier in the Thunder’s defensive scheme. He can also switch fairly well on the perimeter, adding the defensive versatility that Presti looks for in athletic forwards. The dual-rim protection a Hendricks-Holmgren frontcourt would bring to an already very good Oklahoma City defense would make for, maybe, one of five best defenses on day one of the 2023-24 season. It’d also allow versatility with the other 3 positions, with more freedom to play multiple offensively inclined players who struggle limiting penetration at the same time.
Offensively, the fit is a bit less straightforward. Hendricks would operate as a floor-spacing 4 and an inside-out playfinisher where he can shoot, attack closeouts, cut, roll, and be a supreme lob threat who can play well off Chet at the 5 and complement Shai and Giddey’s creation. But his not-so-perfect decision-making could serve as an issue for Presti and co. It could disrupt OKC’s all D/P/S lineups where every player can maintain advantages seamlessly, not only playing off the catch, but also as a roll man where guys like Jaylin, Shai, JDub, and Giddey were routinely used for their elite short-roll passing,
When the ball was in his hands and he was forced to make decisions, Taylor was often slow to read the floor and make the right pass. So while he can roll and he can attack closeouts, it’s harder for him to maintain advantages when he’s tagged in PnR or shown another body on drives. He did flash some nice reads here and there, but it was largely inconsistent and even his best passes were fairly simple ones. On the other hand, you could argue those simple reads are all he’d need with his outlier combination of functional athleticism, movement skills, shooting, and defensive production, and learning those swing-swing, short roll, and closeout attacking drive-and-kick passes would be easier with the abundance of opportunities he’d see sharing the floor with Shai, Giddey, Jalen, and Chet.
Still, he’d have the lowest creation upside, passing ability, and overall feel in a prospect they’ve drafted in the past 3 years since the rebuild has begun. Thus, he could be a great look if he were to fall at 12, but I ultimately don’t think Presti invests assets to trade up for someone with a relatively limited ceiling who also isn’t a perfect fit within OKC’s offense.
Ausar Thompson:
And last but certainly not least, the final trade up target in this piece: Ausar Thompson. I considered writing a bit on Amen here as his size, athleticism, passing, and feel scream Thunder so much, yet, the fit there with multiple ballhandlers — even if trade one of JDub or Giddey to get him — would still be complex as Amen deserves max on-ball reps development. He also likely won’t fall past 4 to Houston, and 5 is probably the highest we can trade up to.
In contrast, Ausar lacks his twin brother’s superhuman on-ball juice but is the superior off-ball player and will be available in trade up range. He’s not in the same regard as his brother in terms of OTD rim pressure, finishing, and playmaking (although still a good one in his own right), but his shooting improvements make a second-side, more complimentary offensive role viable.
Ausar Thompson’s 2022-23 shooting splits:
Regular Season: 29.8% 3PT (17/57), 66.2% FT (47/71)
Playoffs: 38.5% 3PT (15/39), 82.4% FT (14/17)
Total: 33.3% 3PT (32/96), 69.3% FT (61/88)
Via GatheringIntel on Twitter, Ausar has shot a career 30.5% on 466 3PA and 70.4% on 490 FTA between Pine Crest High (dating all the way back to 2017-18) and Overtime Elite. The touch is still pretty average, but average is pretty scary when you’re even close to the athlete Ausar is. He may not be the generational one Amen is but incredible burst, flexibility, and vertical jump at 6’7 with a 7’0 wingspan is still very, very elite.
Drawing even soft closeouts will allow Ausar to punish defenses off the catch, and he’ll find tremendous success as a finisher with NBA spacing. He’s also been very good cutting into advantageous spaces when defenders have sagged off him, where Shai and Giddey could both dump it off or lob it upto him to finish plays. He can even be tapped into as a roller like OKC likes to do with their guards/wings, where they can get Ausar going downhill as a straight-line driver and utilize his wing passing skills on short rolls.
All this makes him a really good connective playfinisher on the wing in the halfcourt, and he’s even deadlier on fastbreaks where he’d perfectly fit into the Thunder’s five position grab-and-go approach in transition.
Off-the-dribble is where it gets a little less pretty with Ausar. I’d still categorize him as one of the better ballhandlers in this class — he’s strung some really nice moves together that have led to gamebreaking shotmaking flashes for someone of his athlete — but the results were still fairly inconsistent and he struggled breaking down his man to get to the paint one-on-one. Even with a ballscreen where he gets surprisingly low on his drives, he can’t generate as good of finishing angles as his twin brother. On the flip side, you can argue a lot of this is low-hanging fruit with spacing improvements for, again, his level of athlete who has still shown the ability to get self-created paint touches (26.4% of his on-ball synergy playtypes ended in attempts at the rim).
I do think he’s well suited to be used in off screen actions — where he shoot it off the catch, start a drive with his man caught behind a screen and finish, or make the right dumpoff/kickout if defenders rotate. As I wrote with my Jalen Williams feature on a Thunder Draft piece last year and briefly touched on with Keyonte, he can be used in 21/Chicago actions where variations of coming off screens, pindowns, and DHOs can flow Ausar into a ballscreen or allow him to get straight downhill and create offense from there. This would allow him to get on-ball touches in the flow of the offense without disrupting OKC’s many other creators.
And defensively, Ausar has gamechanging potential. He doesn’t have perfect positioning but moves his feet incredibly well to beat defenders to their spots and cut off drives, navigates screens surprisingly well for someone 6’7/218 lbs, and has superb recovery tools when he gets beat. He has active hands both on the ball and in passing lanes, and utilizes his 7’0 wingspan and ~42 inch vertical leap to get blocks both on the ball and rotating as the low man where tools, ground coverage, and instincts make up for imperfect positioning. This led to a large amount of defensive playmaking, and his outlook on that end as a supercharged athletic wing who can stick with guys, navigate screens, get stocks, and has 1-4 switch upside is very bright.
Ausar’s combination of positional size/length, athleticism, ballhandling, feel, versatility, and an improving jumpshot make a great fit in OKC in terms of both team context and Presti-bait. Having Chip Engalland as an assistant head coach is a huge competitive advantage for the organization, and having Ausar work with him and potentially become a league-average shooter is frightening to think about. If the Thunder were to trade up in this year’s draft, Ausar Thompson would be my second favorite candidate to draft behind Jarace Walker.
Trade Up Ideas
I’m not usually a fan of predicting draft day lottery trade ups — because of how few happen each year and how unpredictable they end up being — nor a fan of mocking Thunder trades — because of the endless trade possibilities there are with the abundance of picks, players, and salary Presti possesses. It’s just far too unlikely to make an accurate, or even coming close to an accurate prediction of what might happen in a trade with that many variables. Yet, here I am doing both with a section dedicated to Thunder draft day trade up ideas.
One, because it’s just really fun. Two and more importantly, there’s actual intel on a mid-lottery team trading out of their pick and what they’re looking for in a trade. And that team (according to Brian Windhorst, at least) is the Indiana Pacers. So while this is far from confirmed trade talks between a team and Oklahoma City, at least there’s some legit basis on what a deal might look like between the two and why each side would do it. Here’s the full quote from Windhorst.
“Indiana has been talking to people about the No. 7 pick. I’ve been told they’ve been trying to get wing players. They’ve been trying to move out of No. 7 to get a high-level wing player. I think they might be able to, if they’re motivated enough.”
Trade Idea #1:
Pacers Receive: Lu Dort, No. 12
Thunder Receive: No. 7
Indiana gets the best of both worlds here with a high-level wing in Lu Dort while still retaining a lottery pick. A team that finished 26th in defensive rating last season, Dort would provide some much needed perimeter resistance and form a nice inside-out defensive duo with Myles Turner. He’d also continue to receive the open looks he got next to Shai and Giddey with Tyrese Halliburton, one of the best passers in the league.
As for OKC, they part ways with one of their longer tenured and main core guys but someone who doesn’t really fit their offensive structure. A below-average shooter and one of the most inefficient finishers in the league, Dort left a lot to be desired on offense and was incredibly streaky. He had a tendency to overdribble and create at times, which isn’t ideal on a team with Shai, Giddey, Jalen and adding Chet and a lottery pick. The defense is elite, and a Dort-Chet defensive pairing would be deadly, but the offensive fit is flat-out bad and makes the loss here to move up 5 spots manageable.
Trade Up Idea #2:
Pacers Receive: Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams, 2024 Rockets 1st (Top 4-protected), 2024 Utah 1st (Top 4-protected)
Thunder Receive: No. 12
For a team that’s looking for wing players, the Pacers add two here — a starter-level one in Dort and a strong rotation-level one in Kenrich — both of whom bring their own unique strengths and weaknesses to the table. Dort provides the elite PoA defense while Kenrich adds ancillary offensive ability as a shooter, closeout attacker, and connective passer. Along with two strong rotational wings, Indiana also stashes two potential future lottery picks from Houston and Utah. With improvements from their present young core, whomever they select at 4, and a potential Harden/Beverley signing, Houston will likely improve their standing next year and the pick in 2024 will likely convey somewhere between 5-14. As for Utah’s pick, it’s a little more tricky. With how stacked the West will be once again next season, there’s an equal chance they finish inside and outside the top 10 in the 2024 draft. If they don’t, the pick would convey and Indiana has two lottery picks to go with their own. If they do finish inside the top 10, then the pick extends to next season where the protection remains but it likely ends up conveying. Either way, this trade would land Indiana two strong 1st round picks to go along with two wings all for just giving up pick 7.
As for the Thunder’s side, where there’s concern with loosing Dort’s perimeter lockdown and screen navigation skills, that’s replaceable at 12 with either Cason Wallace or Bilal Coulibaly while still moving up for their guy at 7. Losing Kenrich hurts, a leader who’s said he wants to retire a Thunder, but is what’s needed if they want to keep 12 in this trade as well. They currently have four 1st round picks in the 2024 draft, so moving off two of them on a roster with increasingly limited roster spots would be smart while still keeping their own and the Clippers’ picks for flexibility and expendable assets in another trade. Presti can even offer the 50th pick in the draft if Indiana desires — OKC could potentially be competing with Toronto and OG Anunoby in a trade and roster issues likely arise with drafting three players anyways.
As for who the Thunder could pick at 7, Victor, Scoot, Miller, Whitmore, and Amen are likely all off the board and Ausar too with him recently pulling out of his Pacers workout. That leaves Jarace and Taylor as the two trade up targets I talked about — where Presti would likely lean Walker and complete my dream draft day scenario. Taking Cason or Bilal at 12 to soften the loss of Lu’s screen navigation would greatly help Chet in pick-and-roll defense as well; ideally Cason as he’s better on both ends and as an overall prospect in my eyes.
Concluding Words/Big Board
I already explained why I considered but ultimately decided not to include a section on Amen, and I had a similar process with Anthony Black and Kobe Bufkin. In Black’s case, the Thunder already have Shai, Giddey, and Jalen and plugging in another jumbo-sized creator is not what theyneed right now. They would also have to trade up for him with Washington at 8 or Utah at 9 likely taking him, and I don’t think Black is good enough to justify giving up any of those 3 players in a trade to make it work.
As for Bufkin, he’s neither a traditional Presti prospect nor meets our team needs. When Sam elects to draft a player that’s not particularly lengthy or of the typical Thunder archtype, it’s usually when they have an outlier trait. Lu Dort — his defensive game for a guard — and Tre Mann — outlier space creation ability and shotmaking upside. For Bufkin, he has no outlier ability. This makes Oklahoma City drafting him a slim chance in my eyes, thus, I chose not to dedicate a section to him.
Back to the prospects I did detail, after attempting to study Presti’s drafting methods and tendencies over the past couple years, here’s my prediction for what a Sam Presti big board would look like if it consisted of these 10 players:
Ausar Thompson
Jarace Walker
Taylor Hendricks
Leonard Miller
Bilal Couliably
Keyonte George
Cason Wallace
Gradey Dick
Jett Howard
Brice Sensabaugh
And my personal big board if I was GM of the Oklahoma City Thunder:
Jarace Walker
Ausar Thompson
Gradey Dick
Keyonte George
Taylor Hendricks
Cason Wallace
Leonard Miller
Jett Howard
Brice Sensabaugh
Bilal Coulibaly
And that does it. 8000+ words worth of a Thunder draft guide, appreciate anyone who took the time out of their day to read and maybe even make it this far!