The Kristaps Porzingis deal was arguably the most shocking of any at Thursday's trade deadline. Dallas packaged Porzingis and a future 2nd round pick in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans, via Adrian Wojranowski. However, shocking doesn't mean good. In fact, the trade was met with a certain dismay for Dallas among basketball fans, and the discourse surrounding it was mostly one-sided: that Mark Cuban had made a horrible decision.
On the contrary, it's actually proven to be the best thing the Mavericks have done all year. Since trading Porzingis on February 10th, Dallas has gone 9-3 for the tie-3rd best record over any team's past 12 games. Luka Doncic is having one of the best stretches of his career, Spencer Dinwiddie seems to have regained his pre-injury form, and the Mavericks are flourishing. All without Porzingis.
This isn't to say Kristaps is a bad player or anything of such sorts, he was great for the Wizards in his debut. But as Mark Cuban put it with Tim Hardaway Jr.'s injury, "Sometimes it's the system that matters, and in order for the system to work, you've got to have people that fit different roles within a system. KP was great within certain roles... but there were certain things that we didn't have with Timmy out." The Mavericks took a huge swing in trading for Kristaps three years ago, but it became clear it wasn't anywhere near the home run hit they were hoping for. And with that, it made sense for them move on from him and that has only lead to success thus far.
Unleashing Luka Ball
Trading Porzingis has led to 'Luka Ball,' a term used to describe his superstar heliocentric play, being unleashed and on full display with little hindrance. Since the official trade, Doncic has averaged 35.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 60.0% true shooting in 11 games. Those numbers are consistent with his season averages in non-Kristaps minutes, in which he's averaging 31.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 8.9 assists on 56.8% true shooting at a per 75 possessions rate (1305 minutes).
Those numbers are much better than Luka's overall 28/9/8/56% 2021-22 averages. Though that is partially due to his slow start to the season, it's also a product of the limitations Kristaps placed on Doncic.
Here's a visualization of Luka's shot locations in relation to Porzingis' minutes, provided by Mark Cheung's great "Two-Man Game" application.
Look particularly at that middle game area with Porzingis on/off the court. While a couple of percentage points could be tossed up to variance, Luka's midrange percentages being so much better in non Kristaps minutes cannot simply be relegated to that. Especially when considering it's 10% higher while also on 517 more attempts.
While Porzingis' shooting threat may've sometimes stretched out the floor for Doncic, he was more often a 7'3 body lying around the painted area, making life much more difficult for Luka inside the perimeter. This was a major issue not just for Luka, but for the Mavericks as a whole as their one-man offense ran through him with little ancillary creation. So when Luka struggles to create, the Mavericks struggle to score.
That direct relationship between Luka and Dallas' offensive success, and Porzingis' fit issues alongside Doncic, lead to them more often than not being better on offense without Kristaps.
Mavericks Offensive Rating with Luka and Porzingis (2019-22) | Mavericks Offensive Rating with Luka and no Porzingis (2019-22) | Mavericks Offensive Rating with Luka and Porzingis (2021-22) | Mavericks Offensive Rating with Luka and no Porzingis (2021-22) |
5188 Possessions | 7109 Possessions | 1027 Possessions | 2420 Possessions |
116.9 Offensive Rating | 117.3 Offensive Rating | 106.7 Offensive Rating | 116.0 Offensive Rating |
And it isn't like he provides much creation in non-Luka minutes, only 31.2% of his FGA are self-created (via PBP Tracking) and is averaging 3.2 potential assists (via NBA Tracking) in 2021-22. He's requested and got more post touches under HC Jason Kidd, yet, ranks in the 40.4th percentile for post up efficiency.
The same offensive struggles with Luka also remained next to Dallas' other creator, Jalen Brunson:
Mavericks Offensive Rating with Brunson and Porzingis (2021-22) | Mavericks Offensive Rating with Brunson and no Porzingis (2021-22) |
1257 Possessions | 2717 Possessions |
110.6 Offensive Rating | 117.4 Offensive Rating |
And while on/off numbers are definitely very flawed and lack a lot of context, such as overlapping player minutes (like Luka and Brunson), sample size, fit, and other potential lineup issues, I think it's somewhat clear that Kristaps never really fit the Mavericks' offense. Especially with his seemingly everlasting health issues that prevented him from building a consistent synergy with his teammates.
Again, nothing I'm writing is to discredit Porzingis, but to rather show the discrepancies in his fit within Dallas' offense specifically. Parting ways with him through trade has unleashed Doncic's all-time great offensive engine even further, and in turn, the Mavericks' offense as a whole.
Dinwiddie's Instant Synergy
Contrasting Porzingis, Spencer Dinwiddie has instantly fit into Dallas' offense as an ancillary, or secondary creator. With the ability to both create and maintain advantages through his scoring and playmaking, Dinwiddie's fit next to Luka has been great and helps lessen the offensive burden Doncic was once faced with (I'll talk more about this) while still being able to play off of him,
Firstly, Spencer's a very good self-creator. Though he struggled in Washington, a lot of that was due to misutilization, injury return, and locker room issues. In his last fully healthy season with Brooklyn in 2019-20, Dinwiddie averaged 20.6 points and 6.8 assists on 54.1% true shooting. 79.1% of his FGA were self-created that year and while he only shot 45.2% eFG on those attempts, he was a difficult shot maker that defenses had to worry about.
70.5% of his FGM have been unassisted with Dallas through 10 games, and he's averaging 17.5 points and 4.5 assists on 64.2% true shooting in just 30 minutes a night. Dinwiddie's shooting 77% on pull up 2s and 35% on pull up 3s during this stretch as well, and though it might regress with a larger sample size, the threat of his shot making won't differ much.
Dinwiddie is also one of the better slashers in the NBA, a role the Wizards didn't deploy him in. Since his arrival, the Mavericks have ranked 1st among NBA teams in drives per game at 57.5 and Dinwiddie himself is at 12.5 drives/36 minutes and 16.2 drives/100 touches.
Those drives are a combination of both his self-created downhill play, something that can create advantages and be utilized on volume in non Luka minutes.
And when attacking closeouts and maintaining advantages alongside Luka and/or Brunson. Dinwiddie's a good passer as well, which is great for capitalizing on advantages created both by himself and others.
That versatility is exactly what makes Spencer such a great fit in Dallas. He can operate both by himself and alongside Brunson as initiators of the offense when Luka is on the bench, but also play alongside the 2 through his shooting, attacking closeouts, and connective passing. Luka-Brunson-Dinwiddie 3-guard lineups have produced a 122.7 Offensive Rating in 36 minutes and 66 possessions, showing glimpses of great synergy alongside one another that could be useful in late game situations similar to what OKC did with Paul-Dennis-Shai lineups.
Bringing in another creator who can fit next to other guards helps lessen Doncic's incredibly large offensive load, which will really help him and the Mavericks come playoff time. That heliocentric offensive burden affected him greatly in the 2021 postseason, as he clearly got more fatigued quarter by quarter throughout each game and affected his play come crunch time.
This will be mitigated with the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie along with Jalen Brunson's offensive jump this season; Davis Bertans could also provide value if he regains his shooting form.
Kleber's Rim Protection
Letting Porzingis go while also replacing him with Dinwiddie indefinitely makes Dallas' offense better. However, their defense similarly takes an assured hit. While Kristaps may've been somewhat inconsistent on defense throughout his career, he was great for the Mavericks this season and was anchoring a surprisingly good defensive unit. Prior to the Dinwiddie/Bertans trade, the Dallas Mavericks had a 106.9 Defensive Rating, good for 5th in the NBA. Since the trade deadline, that's fallen to 113.0, ranking 14th among all teams in that span but would currently rank 25th overall in the NBA.
However, that's a very small sample size and one that's prone to variance, especially with pieces moving in and out the first month after the trade. I do think Dallas has the personnel to at least hover above league average on defense, starting with Maxi Kleber.
Porzingis' defensive role on this team was as the primary rim protector who often dropped deep in the pick-and-roll and avoided getting switched onto the perimeter. Contrasting this, Kleber was always comfortable switching onto the perimeter, as he ranks 3rd in lowest PPP allowed on isolations after a PnR switch since 2014-15 (via Todd Whitehead).
Because of this, Maxi usually wasn't deployed as a high volume rim deterrer with Kristaps and, in turn, his block rates weren't very high. However, he did show great instincts and timing on contesting shots when needed. He's a very nuanced rim protector, he uses verticality very well and doesn't often fall for pump fakes.
Without KP the past 8 games, Kleber has been averaging 2.0 blocks/75 possessions and is at 1.7 blocks/75 possessions in non-Porzingis minutes on the season.
He's also much more versatile defending the PnR compared to Kristaps. While Porzingis had to nearly always be used as a drop big, Kleber can comfortably switch, hedge/trap and recover, level the ball-handler, and still play drop as well.
Dorian Finney-Smith is a great, switchable man-to-man and complimentary help side defender too. He played some really great defense in a matchup against Kevin Durant last season.
And getting Tim Hardaway Jr. back from injury on the perimeter would only help. With his addition, Luka's increased effort, and a Dorian-Kleber led defensive frontcourt, the Mavericks could very well find their way back to a top 15 defense. And that combined with their historic offense that's only improved since the trade could very well make them not only a threat to knock off any team in the West, but anyone we may find them up and against in the NBA Finals.
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