A mini-feature on the development of a unique wrinkle in Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's superb scoring repertoire.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has quietly turned into one of the better scorers in the NBA over the past couple seasons, most recently averaging 30.4 points and 7.3 assists on 63.4% TS over 13 games post All-Star break in 2022. He’s done most of his damage attacking the rim — whether it’s getting there and finishing at the rim, or countering and stopping and popping in the midrange — and on the perimeter as well.
Now that he’s seem to have put on *major* muscle this offseason, it’s gotten me wondering about his post game (again). Here’s his career post-ups progression, via Synergy:
Season | Points | Possessions | PPP |
2018-19 | 8 | 6 | 1.33 |
2019-20 | 2 | 2 | 1.00 |
2020-21 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 |
2021-22 | 14 | 13 | 1.08 |
Post-ups were like finding gold outside of California for SGA his first 3 seasons — they were extremely hard to come by. His efficiency was fine the couple times he did in his first 2 seasons, and they just weren’t a part of his game in his 3rd NBA season. However, after putting on lots of weight and teases of post work from accounts like Swish Cultures during the 2021 offseason, I expected a jump in this area during his 2021-22 campaign.
Although it wasn’t quite the leap I thought it’d be (he only ended up posting up every 3-4 games or so), the capitalizing on certain mismatches were nice to see nonetheless. He doubled his career high post-up possessions upto that point and had solid success doing so. He scored 1.08 Points Per Possession on 13 post-up attempts (that led to either a FGA, FTA, or TOV), which ranked in the 82nd percentile. It was also 3rd best efficiency in the league among guards minimum 10 post-up possessions, behind Kyrie Irving and Jalen Brunson.
While 13 possessions is too small of a sample to have takeaways from a pure statistical standpoint, trends can be found when going deeper into both the data and film. I handcharted all 13 of his post-up possessions logged by Synergy last season, and here’s what I found.
Only 2 of SGA’s 13 post-ups ended in shots at the rim; nearly 85% of his post-ups were fadeaway/stepback jumpers. He shot 1-2 (50%) at the rim and 6-11 (54.5%) on jumpshots.
Shai dribbled between 2-7 times on post-ups. When dribbling 4 times or less in the post (excludes dribbles that led into the post-up), he shot 2-8 FG and scored 0.5 PPP. When dribbling more than 4 times in the post, he shot 5-5 FG and scored 2.0 PPP.
That 2nd trend was particularly interesting to me. At first glance, it seems to suggest he found success in the post when he wasn’t being rushed and had time to work against his mismatch. He found rhythm, positioning, and was more comfortable overall. I went back and rewatched all the clips to confirm this, and unsurprisingly, it was true.
When Shai took 5 or more post dribbles, he usually ended up having better positioning and balance on his shots, which made rising up for a jumpshot much easier. He often got lower with his shoulders and was initiating contact, leading to better separation on fadeaway/stepback jumpers as well.
When taking less than 5 post dribbles, SGA found himself more off balance on his shots, with less rhythm on his attempts and sometimes flailing.
Of course, some of them were just variance too, which is inevitable with small sample size.
Regardless, the trends are obvious. With a near 7-foot wingspan and an ever growing frame as a guard, SGA has the ability to capitalize on mismatches in the post. Creating rhythm and getting down lower, and getting into his defenders with his shoulders more is the key to scoring consistency for him on post-ups. Like every offseason for him, Shai has added weight and it should only help him as a contact initiator and finisher. That along with a smooth fadeaway jumper give him a clear means to success as a post-up guard.
Shai being a better post scorer isn’t the difference between star and superstar, and it isn’t the difference between elite offensive player and engine of championship level team. However, being able to capitalize on mismatches with positional size and strength would only improve his scoring versatility, and in turn, boost his value in that department.
Comments